NHL Betting Guide For Monday, March 6
Odds, picks, sleepers and promos for Monday’s NHL slate
NHL Betting Odds For Tonight
Highlighted by a matchup against the Edmonton Oilers and Buffalo Sabres, Monday features six exciting NHL games and BetQL is your one-stop destination for live NHL betting odds, best bets from our model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive articles and much more. Below, you’ll see a breakdown for some of tonight’s most intriguing games from a betting perspective, expert picks from the BetQL Editorial Team, sleeper picks to consider as well as some epic promotions to take advantage of. Scroll down to get started or click on any of the links below to head to a specific section.
NHL Previews & Predictions For Tonight
We'll start things out in Buffalo, where the Sabres will be looking to defend their home ice against the visiting Edmonton Oilers from the north. It's no secret that I have been fading the Sabres a lot here recently, and that has led to success for the most part. I only back them in certain situations, and those don't present themselves too often. Buffalo is scoring 3.74 goal per game and allowing 3.56, while also being outshot by their opponents 33.1 to 32.4 on average. They are a defensive liability, and any good team is going to be able to exploit them on most nights.
The Oilers have the same problem for the most part, but they have been better at hiding it than the Sabres have. Connor McDavid and the Edmonton offense are incredibly difficult to contain, and Buffalo is going to have fits trying to. The Oilers are scoring a whopping 3.88 goals per game and allowing 3.31, while outshooting their opponents 33.5 to 31.6 on average. Not great defensive numbers, to be sure, but good enough to where they can still win a lot of games with that offense.
PICK: Oilers -1.5 (+160, DraftKings). Edmonton should be able to put up a crooked number against this very poor defense and goaltending that Buffalo is presenting. While the Sabres offense is good themselves, the Oilers need a bounce back defensive performance after allowing seven goals against the Jets last time out. I think they do enough to win by 2+, and I'll take the huge plus money value as well.
For our second game of the evening, we head down to Texas, where the Dallas Stars will be taking on the visiting Calgary Flames from north of the border. Calgary is in absolute shambles right now, and this is a team that I am absolutely mystified as to why they are so bad. It just doesn't make a lot of sense when you look at the numbers. The Flames are scoring 3.05 goals per game and allowing 3.06, but they are massively outshooting their opponents 35.6 to 27.1. That is one of the largest shot differentials in the NHL, and yet, they can't seem to win games. A few teams with a worse shot differential than the Flames include Boston, New Jersey, and Toronto.
Dallas has seemingly broken out of their slump with three straight victories coming into this game. Granted, two of those came against the Coyotes and Blackhawks, but a win is a win. The Stars are scoring 3.29 goals per game and allowing 2.59, while also outshooting their opponents 32.5 to 30.9. Dallas is a good team that has been great in net all year, and hopefully, they can keep out of long-losing streaks.
PICK: Flames ML (+115, PointsBet). Personally, I just can't help myself. Calgary should be far better than they are, and it's insane how poor their luck has been on the ice when it comes to scoring. I have to believe that with one of the NHL's top shot differentials, they will figure it out, but time is running thin. They need to win this game in the worst way.
For our last play of the night, we'll head out to California, where the Washington Capitals will be traversing the country to take on the Kings in L.A. All season long, I have been talking up the Kings and how I think they are massively undervalued most nights. The sportsbooks gave them zero respect in their first half of the season, and we made them pay. Los Angeles is scoring 3.31 goals per game and allowing 3.34, but they are outshooting their opponents 32.3 to 28.3 on average. This is a great team that should only get better with the addition in net of Joonas Korpisalo.
The Caps went through a very rough patch there without their leading goalscorer in Alex Ovechkin, but they have started to get back to their winning ways with him back in the fold. Washington has won three of their last five games, and two straight coming into this one. They are scoring 3.09 goals per game and allowing 2.97, while also outshooting their opponents 31.6 to 30.2 on average.
PICK: Capitals ML (+130, BetRivers). It's tough to go against my Kings tonight, but the value is actually on the other side in this one. Washington is a good team, and they need to start making a push to stay in the playoff race. At decent plus money, I'll take a shot with them to sweep the California roadtrip they are on.
NHL Expert Picks For Tonight
Matt Horner: Oilers -1.5 at Sabres: As mentioned previously, Buffalo doesn't impress me with their poor goaltending and defense, and I think we may start to see them fade down the stretch. Edmonton's lightning quick offense should be able to put up a big number. I'll take the +160 here for the value over laying the -150 ML.
Dan Karpuc: Stars -130 vs. Flames: Coming off a 7-3 win over the Avalanche, the Stars should have a lot of momentum heading into this one. Winners of three straight and four of their last five, Dallas has a clear edge against the Flames, who have lost five consecutive contests while being outscored 17-8 in that span. Give me Dallas to grab this win on their home ice.
NHL Sleeper Picks For Tonight
Matt Horner: Sharks +180 at Jets: I have faded the Jets all season, as I think they are one of the more overrated teams in hockey this year. They have a negative shot differential, and their goaltending is starting to falter a bit. San Jose stinks to be sure, but at +180, I think there is a ton of value here. Probably my favorite value play of the night.
Dan Karpuc: Sabres +125 vs. Oilers: BetQL is giving the Sabres a small edge and actually projects Buffalo to win this game outright. Since you can get +125 odds on this outcome, I’m all over it. The Sabres have gone 6-3 SU in their last nine contests while the Oilers have gone 4-7 SU in their last 11 games, including 1-4 SU in their last five road matchups.
BetMGM NHL OGP Insurance Play Of The Day
If you're not playing BetMGM's NHL OGP Insurance promo yet, you're leaving money on the table. Opt in to the promo and place a four-leg (minimum) NHL one-game parlay with at least +400 odds; if your OGP loses by one leg, you'll get your stake back in a free bet up to $25 -- and you can take advantage of this promo once every day there's an NHL game! Here is my play for today:
Thompson Anytime Goal
Sabres u2.5 1P
Total Goals o1.5 1P
Oilers ML
(OGP odds: +400)
Join BetMGM to start taking advantage of their daily OGP insurance promos across NBA, NHL, Champions League and Premier League too!
