NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For Goodyear 400

NASCAR Odds, Predictions & Best Bets For Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway

NASCAR, a sport that has seen significant changes over the past few decades, has always had a constant: Darlington Raceway. This track, known for its unforgiving nature, has consistently pushed drivers to the limits of their abilities, making it a pivotal part of NASCAR's history.

The comparative tracks we've considered have changed since North Carolina Speedway in Rockingham was removed from the schedule 20 years ago. Rockingham had all the same elements as Darlington since both were built in the same sandy belt of the East Coast. The challenge was always to balance speed and tire wear, and this was not a characteristic inherent in racecar drivers.

Now we look at driver records at Bristol Motor Speedway, Dover Motor Speedway, and Nashville Superspeedway as courses that are historically hard on tires.

Darlington requires patience and maturity. While Young Guns must be addressed on this track, veterans are preferred because they have developed instincts that help determine just how slow to go during the first several laps to keep speed in the tire for as long a run as possible.

Rhythm plays an important role on this track. Last year, six drivers swept the top 10, and three were coming off an equally strong run in the 2022 Southern 500. However, only one scored consecutive top-fives, so William Byron is this week’s favorite.

NASCAR Picks For Goodyear 400

1. William Byron ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750

Consensus Odds*: +785 | Best Odds: FanDuel +850

Byron entered the Dover race with a five-race string of top-10s and failed to keep that streak alive when he crashed and retired on Lap 329 of 400. He didn’t entirely recover last week and finished outside the top 20 at Kansas Speedway, but his recent struggles are part of the reason his consensus odds are more attractive than those of Kyle Larson or Denny Hamlin. Byron’s victory in last year's edition of this race, along with a fourth in the Southern 500, gives him a three-race, top-10 streak and makes him a solid value. 

2. Chase Elliott ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1400

Consensus Odds*: +1500 | Best Odds: Caesars, BetRivers +1600

Ranked eighth in consensus odds, the sportsbook traders are not yet ready to trust Elliott, which is surprising in light of a five-race streak of top-fives on unrestricted ovals. Even while he struggled with other course types last year, Elliott was consistent on rough tracks, with results of eight or better in his previous six attempts. Elliott won races on this track type at Dover and Nashville in 2022 when he was at the top of his form. At 14/1 on DraftKings, that line drags his top-three odds to 4/1 and those for a top-five to +180, which allows bettors to cover their outright win wager.

3. Denny Hamlin ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +500

Consensus Odds*: +495 | Best Odds: FanDuel +550

Hamlin should be the favorite this week, strictly based on the numbers. After all, he has won the last three races on this track type with back-to-back victories at Bristol and a win at Dover. Those are good comparatives, but the 2023 Darlington record somewhat outweighs them, and he failed to crack the top 10 on this track in either event. He also finished outside the top 20 in the 2022 edition of this race. On the other hand, He has three Darlington wins since 2017 and finished second in last year’s Southern 500, so he cannot be ignored. 

4. Kyle Larson ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +400

Consensus Odds*: +420 | Best Odds: FanDuel +450

Larson’s Kansas victory last week, slim as it was, puts him on an excellent trajectory for May, which he hopes will end with success in the Indy 500. Equally important, it erases the memory of back-to-back 21st-placed finishes at Texas Motor Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway and gives him six top-fives in his last nine oval races. Larson has been one of Hamlin’s closest rivals in recent rough-surface races and may have a slight advantage. He rides a current five-race, top-five streak on them with a victory in last year’s Southern 500. 

5. Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +750

Consensus Odds*: +805 | Best Odds: FanDuel +850

To understand how much Reddick has improved this year, look at his Darlington odds for last fall’s Southern 500. His consensus line of +805 is 455 points lower than the last time NASCAR visited this challenging old track, but there is still room to make a solid wager. Reddick does not have the same lengthy streaks on the combined rough surface tracks, but he has been solid at Darlington with top-three finishes in three of the last four races.

6. Bubba Wallace ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2800

Consensus Odds*: +3280 | Best Odds: Caesars +4000

Wallace is this week’s top dark horse pick. The traders would seem to be focusing on his recent struggles with three straight results outside the top 15, but Wallace is still a young driver prone to inconsistency. Overlooked are his last three Darlington races, in which he finished ninth or better and scored a top-five in last year’s Goodyear 400. As with Reddick, he has been stronger on this course than the other rough-surfaced tracks, but that plays into your favor with higher odds. Wallace is even money to score a top 10 and 7/2 for a top-five.

7. Martin Truex Jr. ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +650

Consensus Odds*: +660 | Best Odds: FanDuel +700

Truex has been difficult to handicap in the past few seasons. Whenever we decide he’s reversed his fortune, the pit crew makes a critical mistake that mires him in traffic. He is one of four drivers with back-to-back top-fives in the last two races, including a third on Dover's concrete track. The caveat for Truex is his recent Darlington record: He has not scored a top-10 there since 2021, but that season saw him in victory lane in the spring and fourth in the fall. 

8. Brad Keselowski ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +1800

Consensus Odds*: +1700 | Best Odds: DraftKings, BetRivers+1800

Darlington is the perfect type of track for Keselowski to break back into victory lane since tire management rewards veterans. Kez won the 2018 Southern 500 while racing for Roger Penske, and he’s continued to be strong in the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing (RFK) ride with a current three-race streak of results seventh or better. This team came close to winning at Texas and Talladega with runner-up finishes. They need just a little luck to get that extra position. On the combined rough-surfaces tracks, Keselowski has six top-10s and two additional top-15s in his last nine attempts. 

9. Chris Buescher ⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2500

Consensus Odds*: +2260 | Best Odds: FanDuel +2600

Darlington will be a test for Buescher to see how quickly he can shake off last week’s bitter disappointment. Getting beaten is one thing, but losing by 0.001 seconds must send the mind into overdrive with thoughts of what could have been done differently. As with his teammate Keselowski, Buescher has been consistently strong on this course type, with a win at Bristol in 2022, followed by top-10s in five of the next six rough-track races. 

10. Ty Gibbs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

DraftKings: Outright Win +2200

Consensus Odds*: +2480 | Best Odds: Caesars +2800

It took a while for Gibbs to find the groove on rough-surface tracks. He failed to crack the top 10 in his first six races on them, and while he had a few top-15s, his average finish was 19th. Beginning with Bristol last fall, he broke that barrier and has been 10th or better ever since. The best bet is Gibbs will score his first Darlington top-10 this week, but he opened with minus odds at -120 for that mark, so there’s not a lot of juice for the squeeze. If you risk some couch cushion money, his +275 for a top-five is much more attractive.

* Consensus odds are the average of five sportsbooks: DraftKings, MGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and BetRivers